Modelling on the Move 6: cycling & transport modelling

Charlie Lloyd from LCC responds to presentations at Modelling on the Move 6

Our final event covered cycling and transport modelling, with a particular focus on user and stakeholder input. Seventy people attended from a range of academic, practice, and advocacy backgrounds. The event was held at Westminster University on 22nd January, in collaboration with the London Cycling Campaign’s Policy Forum. Slides and audio from the event have been uploaded here.

Brian explains the Royal College Street scheme in Camden.

The first session (Challenges) focused on shortcomings of current modelling approaches, with speakers including Helen Bowkett (Head of Transport Evidence at the Welsh Government), who argued that we need better data on cycling to use in models. The second session (Developments) covered specific examples of using modelling to plan better for cycling, with contributions from Transport for London and from two Dutch experts. The final session (Issues) discussed a range of key issues relevant to incorporating cycling more fully in modelling practice, from health to climate change.

Some of the seminar participants joined a ‘History of Cycle Infrastructure in London’ bike tour on Thursday 23rd January led by Brian Deegan of Transport for London. Herbert Tiemens’ write-up of the tour can be found here.

5 Responses to Modelling on the Move 6: cycling & transport modelling

  1. Pingback: Modelling on the Move: Cycling and Transport Modelling | tgrg

  2. Pingback: Cycling and Transport Modelling: slides and audio recordings - Modelling on the Move

  3. Participants who stayed to the end will recall my feed-back on a meeting which I had attended earlier that day at DfT about the National Transport Model’s treatment of cycling. Robin Lovelace (another speaker at the workshop) was also present.

    The meeting was prompted by CTC’s concern that the NTM predicts that cycle use is set to fall in absolute terms between 2015 and 2025, and then to remain roughly static till 2040 (which amounts to a continued fall in cycle use per person, after allowing for population growth – see This is despite David Cameron’s recent call for a “cycling revolution” and his hope “to see cycling soar”. There has also been huge public and political support for the recommendations of the parliamentary ‘Get Britain Cycling’ report, with its targets to boost cycle use to 10% of trips by 2025 and to 25% of trips by 2050 (

    My colleague Chris Peck has written a blog outlining the issues we discussed: In essence though, we were asking DfT to do three things:

    1) To improve the NTM’s ability to replicate current trends in cycle use, particularly in large urban areas. In London, it has under-estimated the growth of cycle (and the fall in motor traffic); while nationwide it is predicting a fall in the average length of cycle trips, when in fact they have been increasing sharply. A better understanding of these trends would clearly improve the model’s future predictions.
    2) To model the predicted impacts of the policies the Government is considering adopting in its forthcoming ‘Cycling Delivery Plan’, based on evidence of what has worked elsewhere (e.g. in the cycling towns and cities programme). A good estimate of the Plan’s benefits could help strengthen the case the significantly increased investment needed for the Plan needed to really achieve a “cycling revolution”.
    3) To model the predicted benefits of meeting the targets of the Get Britain Cycling report (as above). That would really set a value on the investment in a Plan which was sufficiently ambitious to reach those targets.

    DfT were happy to agree to 1) and 2), and asked us to contribute relevant evidence. However they were very resistant to the third.

    To anyone with information or evidence relevant to points 1) or 2), please do get in touch with my colleague Chris Peck:

    Likewise if you are in a position to carry out no 3) – this could be enormously valuable!

  4. John Head says:

    It was an interesting day but I came away without having learned much about traffic modelling. Perhaps my expectations were unrealistic but I was hoping to learn something about how the process actually works. I should have liked to hear a lot more from John Parkin.


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